Yang Gang Wisdom #17: Peak at the Right Time
Hey Yang Gang,
Hope you all enjoyed the holidays and got some much-needed rest! After a long Twitter and Yang Gang break, it’s been difficult for me to get back into the swing of things, but what keeps me motivated is the urgency of our situation – we have about a month until Iowa and New Hampshire. The next month could be make or break for us. There are many primaries – and many opportunities – for Yang to become the front runner after these first two states, but to many Americans currently not engaged in the election, the focus will be on Iowa and New Hampshire. We need to take this first opportunity seriously to avoid Andrew Yang becoming another Ross Perot or Ron Paul.
As Arthur — our fantastic editor — thoughtfully captured in the New Year’s Day edition, the low single-digit poling numbers give some of the Yang Gang (myself included) a sinking feeling like maybe we hoped for too much too soon. Maybe an Asian man with no name recognition or political experience can’t actually ascend all the way to the White House in the span of only two years.
That said, this edition of the newsletter starts with bad news. Please read all the way through before getting mad.
That’s right. Andrew Yang’s name won’t be on the Ohio ballot box and Ohio supporters will have to write him in. But wait, there’s more…
Low polling
To put things in perspective, learn more about what it really takes to win, and possibly make yourself upset, I recommend reading this article “Will Andrew Yang Win Any Delegates?” by the National Review.
“The bad news for Yang is that Democrats have instituted a threshold of 15 percent to win any delegates in just about every state. Sometimes that 15 percent threshold is measured statewide, sometimes it is measured at the congressional-district level, and sometimes it is measured in a mix between the two.”
Essentially we need a huge shift in polls for the early states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina — if we expect to win any delegates. Especially Iowa and New Hampshire because the momentum of performing well there will influence other states.
If the polls are accurate, we will be lucky to scrape by with 1 delegate because we simply won’t meet the minimum 15 percent threshold. If the polls are wrong, we will shock the world and be on our way to the magic 2000 delegate count we need to win. We either need the polls to be vastly underestimating Yang’s support, or we need to do everything in power to make sure this campaign “peaks at the right time.”
January debates unlikely
In response to our #PollThePeople campaign, the DNC has requested pollsters do more polls, but they haven’t committed to conducting any themselves — saying it’s not their responsibility:
“The D.N.C. will not sponsor our own debate-qualifying polls of presidential candidates during a primary. The New York Times and the expansive list of 16 qualifying poll sponsors should conduct more independent polling.” -DNC Spokeswoman Xochitl Hinojosa
Considering the quickly approaching deadline to qualify on January 10th, it seems unlikely we’ll qualify for the January debate. Unless intense pressure from the media or other (ideally non-Twitter) sources push the issue, but with the Trump/Iran drama sucking all the oxygen out of the room it seems unlikely. That said, the campaign has been posting photo after photo of larger-than-expected attendance at campaign events. We have enough buzz to stay relevant through one debate (and there’s always the next one).
We can win
We still have outstanding fundraising numbers and growth:
We still got #YangOnEllen.
We still have the most dedicated support base.
Yang’s consistent second/third choice ranking among Democrats plays in our favor. With the 15 percent minimum threshold, many supporters of smaller candidates will have to choose someone – and more and more of them are saying they’d choose Yang.
Even MSNBC admits since no new polls have been released, what will happen in Iowa and early states are a near complete unknown. Who knows how many people were Yanged during the holidays?
Undecided voters
If we decide the polls are correct, it’s worth noting several polls show “Most Democratic voters still haven’t settled on a candidate”.
“New Marist College, Quinnipiac University, and Suffolk University polls didn’t just find that New Hampshire voters aren’t sure who they want to vote for at the ballot box — they found that the majority of voters are, all across the country.”
The three polls reported shows between 57 and 76 percent of the respondents have still not decided who they will vote for. They also show Democratic voters are much more uncertain this year than they were in 2016. If we listen to the experts, they say no one knows what will happen in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.
Outwit, Outplay, Outlast
It’s no secret that the plan has always been to “peak at the right time.” From the perspective of outlasting other candidates, Yang has performed brilliantly.
Today, Yang’s odds at winning the nomination are nearly the same as Warren’s – something almost unimaginable only four short months ago.
What’s our credible path to the nomination?
The same it’s always been: We direct our focus at the majority of Americans who are undecided. Yang Gang shows up when the votes are counted. Disaffected voters show up for Yang too. When it’s time to vote, we scoop up support from other candidates under the 15 percent threshold.
We can still win.
So what can we do?
Get to Iowa
YangWeek is underway right now!
If you’re in the region, you can still get to Iowa for YangWeek.
Get to early States
Iowa may be first, but New Hampshire and Nevada are also vital. It’s all hands-on deck time!
Get to a local event
If you can’t make it to the early states, there’s plenty going on elsewhere in the Yang Gang.
https://www.mobilize.us/yang2020/
Do stuff online
As someone not near Iowa or other states (I’m not even in the country), there’s still plenty to do online to help.
Share Yang articles like this with Democratic/undecided friends and family – especially anyone in the crucial early states.
Raise money through stockbanking or bankbanking:
And most importantly, stay #HumanityFirst.
As you may have noticed, we mix things up frequently here at Yang Gang Wisdom. We’re growing and trying to learn all the time so if there’s anything you particularly like or don’t like, please let us know by simply replying to this email. Happy New Year and thank you for reading!
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